NBA games

MIA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
109–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33272326109
PHI33292022104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home PHI
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 23 7 7
Bam Adebayo S 39 23 13 4
Duncan Robinson S 33 20 1 4
Haywood Highsmith 36 16 2 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 12 9 3
Caleb Martin S 25 8 1 3
Nikola Jovic S 14 3 3 3
Kevin Love 12 2 6 1
Jamal Cain 10 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 30 6 7
Buddy Hield S 44 22 3 10
Paul Reed S 39 18 12 2
Ricky Council IV 23 13 4 2
KJ Martin S 28 9 5 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 9 3 2
Cameron Payne 22 2 3 3
Mo Bamba 9 1 3 0
Terquavion Smith 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
4 Paul Reed PHI
9%
5 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
6 KJ Martin PHI
8%
7 Buddy Hield PHI
8%
8 Caleb Martin MIA
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
10 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.0 3.8 6.1
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.2 5.7 1.8
3 Tyler Herro MIA 19.1 4.3 5.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.1 10.8 4.1
5 Buddy Hield PHI 12.0 3.6 4.1
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.2 3.8 2.3
7 Caleb Martin MIA 10.0 3.9 1.8
8 Paul Reed PHI 10.0 7.6 1.5
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.8 2.1 1.8
10 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.2 2.4 0.7
11 Cameron Payne PHI 7.0 2.2 3.1
12 Kevin Love MIA 6.8 4.5 1.8
13 KJ Martin PHI 6.6 3.3 1.3
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.3 3.0 1.0
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.2 3.5 1.4
16 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.2 3.4 2.0
17 Jamal Cain MIA 6.1 2.6 0.8
18 Mo Bamba PHI 6.0 5.5 1.1
19 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.3 1.0 1.2
20 Cole Swider MIA 3.6 1.2 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.7 1.3 0.5
22 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.7 1.5 0.7
23 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 2.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.