NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
100–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY36192223100
ORL27382429118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 33 1 6
Precious Achiuwa S 43 23 14 5
Alec Burks S 30 13 3 0
Jacob Toppin 17 11 4 0
Miles McBride 32 8 1 1
Jericho Sims S 39 8 8 1
Josh Hart S 30 4 3 2
Taj Gibson 9 0 0 0
Charlie Brown Jr. 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 36 6 5
Franz Wagner S 32 21 3 6
Cole Anthony 25 11 2 1
Moritz Wagner 13 10 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 24 9 6 1
Jonathan Isaac 15 8 5 2
Joe Ingles 20 6 2 5
Caleb Houstan S 25 6 1 0
Anthony Black S 23 4 2 2
Kevon Harris 3 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 2-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
13%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
11%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Jericho Sims NY
9%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Alec Burks NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
35%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.7 4.2 7.1
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.8 5.7 7.1
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.4 5.5 5.0
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 22.1 4.0 4.2
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 18.8 3.1 2.4
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.2 5.9 1.8
7 Precious Achiuwa NY 11.8 9.6 1.3
8 Josh Hart NY 11.8 9.1 5.2
9 Alec Burks NY 11.4 3.1 1.9
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.7 9.2 2.1
11 Miles McBride NY 9.1 1.9 1.3
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.0 4.0 1.1
13 Cole Anthony ORL 7.1 3.4 2.2
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.8 0.8
15 Anthony Black ORL 5.2 1.6 1.1
16 Joe Ingles ORL 4.8 1.6 1.6
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.4 1.3 0.7
18 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.4 1.8 0.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 4.0 3.7 0.6
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.7 3.5 1.0
21 Taj Gibson NY 3.2 2.5 0.8
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.1 1.1 0.6
23 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.7 1.0 0.8
24 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 1.1 0.3
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.