NBA games

ATL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
99–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL3124251999
CHA29323526122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHA
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 28 21 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 38 19 12 0
Saddiq Bey S 32 14 4 1
Dejounte Murray S 32 13 7 4
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 12 5 4
Trae Young S 34 12 2 12
Bruno Fernando S 26 6 12 1
Kobe Bufkin 2 2 0 0
Garrison Mathews 16 0 0 0
Vit Krejci 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 36 26 6 4
Tre Mann S 30 21 8 6
Miles Bridges S 34 17 5 4
Grant Williams 27 15 10 2
Vasilije Micic 20 13 2 5
Nick Richards S 29 12 7 0
Seth Curry 17 9 0 1
Cody Martin S 30 6 7 4
Davis Bertans 13 3 1 1
Bryce McGowens 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
11%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
7 Nick Richards CHA
9%
8 Trae Young ATL
9%
9 Cody Martin CHA
7%
10 Tre Mann CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
49%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.5 2.3 11.8
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.5 6.2 7.0
3 Miles Bridges CHA 24.4 7.1 5.3
4 Brandon Miller CHA 22.7 4.9 3.1
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.8 8.9 4.7
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.1 4.1 3.5
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 17.7 6.9 2.4
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.4 3.8 1.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.8 8.0 1.6
10 Nick Richards CHA 12.9 9.8 1.4
11 Grant Williams CHA 11.6 4.5 2.1
12 Cody Martin CHA 11.2 4.1 4.8
13 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.1 1.8 3.5
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.1 1.4 1.4
15 Tre Mann CHA 6.0 2.6 2.9
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.8 2.1 0.9
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.8 1.4 0.7
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 4.7 1.9 1.1
19 Seth Curry CHA 4.7 1.6 1.0
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.4 3.4 0.7
21 Davis Bertans CHA 4.4 1.6 0.9
22 Patty Mills ATL 3.3 1.1 0.8
23 JT Thor CHA 3.1 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.