NBA games

DET @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
111–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET24243132111
LAL34372826125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ausar Thompson S 29 19 2 0
James Wiseman 23 18 9 2
Jaden Ivey S 29 15 2 5
Evan Fournier 25 13 4 1
Cade Cunningham S 25 12 7 7
Simone Fontecchio S 26 8 4 4
Jalen Duren S 23 8 8 0
Shake Milton 19 8 6 4
Troy Brown Jr. 17 7 4 2
Marcus Sasser 18 3 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 31 25 1 8
D'Angelo Russell S 32 21 2 3
Anthony Davis S 28 20 14 4
Rui Hachimura S 30 15 5 2
Austin Reaves S 32 15 7 6
Christian Wood 13 11 4 0
Taurean Prince 23 8 5 1
Spencer Dinwiddie 31 6 2 7
Jaxson Hayes 13 2 7 1
Jalen Hood-Schifino 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
2 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.1 7.3 8.6
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.9 11.6 4.7
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 23.2 3.1 6.3
4 Jaden Ivey DET 22.2 4.3 4.4
5 Cade Cunningham DET 20.9 4.4 8.4
6 Austin Reaves LAL 20.4 3.2 6.5
7 Jalen Duren DET 16.0 12.2 2.8
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.3 1.3
9 Marcus Sasser DET 10.9 2.1 4.3
10 Simone Fontecchio DET 10.4 5.1 1.8
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 10.2 2.1 4.8
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 3.3 1.5
13 Ausar Thompson DET 8.6 5.5 1.6
14 Evan Fournier DET 5.9 1.4 0.7
15 Christian Wood LAL 4.7 2.8 0.7
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.5 3.4 0.7
17 Mike Muscala DET 4.4 2.4 0.8
18 James Wiseman DET 4.0 3.4 0.7
19 Colin Castleton LAL 3.3 2.8 0.4
20 Shake Milton DET 3.2 1.8 0.9
21 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.1 1.2 1.1
22 Tosan Evbuomwan DET 3.0 2.8 0.8
23 Malachi Flynn DET 2.7 0.8 0.5
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.5 0.3
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.6 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.