NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
121–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN37222537121
POR25263226109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 41 4 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 18 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 37 16 15 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 19 13 5 1
Naz Reid 25 10 3 1
Kyle Anderson 22 8 3 8
Mike Conley S 26 7 4 6
Luka Garza 4 5 1 0
Josh Minott 4 2 0 0
Daishen Nix 4 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 32 22 16 1
Anfernee Simons S 32 20 3 5
Dalano Banton 26 16 5 3
Scoot Henderson 34 14 1 9
Toumani Camara S 22 14 4 2
Jerami Grant S 35 12 1 4
Duop Reath 13 6 3 0
Jabari Walker 17 4 7 0
Ibou Badji 4 1 1 1
Ashton Hagans 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes two point shot (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
8 Ashton Hagans POR
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.2 4.8 6.1
2 Jerami Grant POR 24.1 4.6 4.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 23.7 3.9 6.0
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.6 6.7 3.3
5 Deandre Ayton POR 16.1 10.0 2.0
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.7 12.0 1.6
7 Scoot Henderson POR 12.6 2.7 3.3
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 3.3 1.7
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 3.3 6.2
10 Naz Reid MIN 10.0 4.8 1.4
11 Jabari Walker POR 9.6 7.2 1.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.5 2.6 3.2
13 Ashton Hagans POR 6.9 2.6 4.7
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.6 2.1 1.8
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.8 3.0 3.6
16 Toumani Camara POR 5.8 3.5 1.2
17 Duop Reath POR 5.3 2.2 1.1
18 Monte Morris MIN 5.0 2.2 1.2
19 Kris Murray POR 4.7 1.9 1.1
20 Daishen Nix MIN 4.2 1.0 1.1
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.8 1.6 1.6
22 Josh Minott MIN 2.7 1.3 0.5
23 Dalano Banton POR 2.7 1.0 1.2
24 Ibou Badji POR 2.3 2.6 0.8
25 Luka Garza MIN 2.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.