NBA games

SAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
125–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC39282533125
PHX38263036130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHX
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 40 40 9 6
Domantas Sabonis S 39 35 18 12
Malik Monk 33 22 4 6
Kevin Huerter S 24 10 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 37 9 5 0
Keegan Murray S 34 6 5 1
Davion Mitchell 17 3 0 1
Kessler Edwards 2 0 1 0
Keon Ellis 7 0 2 0
Alex Len 7 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 28 11 4
Devin Booker S 38 25 3 9
Eric Gordon 27 23 3 3
Grayson Allen S 39 19 4 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 9 9 2
Royce O'Neale 30 9 4 5
Josh Okogie 19 7 2 1
Bradley Beal S 5 5 1 0
Nassir Little 10 3 2 0
Drew Eubanks 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
12%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.3 4.5 6.2
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.0 3.9 5.5
3 Kevin Durant PHX 24.9 7.3 6.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 22.5 4.9 6.6
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.6 14.2 9.9
6 Malik Monk SAC 17.2 3.7 5.0
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 15.2 3.5 1.7
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 13.2 3.9 3.3
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.1 8.3 4.4
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.9 4.5 2.1
11 Eric Gordon PHX 11.8 2.6 2.2
12 David Roddy PHX 11.3 5.1 2.6
13 Grayson Allen PHX 10.0 3.4 3.6
14 Trey Lyles SAC 8.3 3.3 1.3
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.6 3.5 1.6
16 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.8 1.6 1.8
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.7 4.5 1.1
18 Bol Bol PHX 5.3 3.7 0.9
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.8 2.8 1.0
20 Chris Duarte SAC 3.8 1.4 1.0
21 Alex Len SAC 3.5 2.6 1.0
22 Keon Ellis SAC 3.5 1.5 0.9
23 Theo Maledon PHX 3.5 1.0 1.6
24 JaVale McGee SAC 3.0 2.6 0.4
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Nassir Little PHX 2.4 1.0 0.4
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.1 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.