NBA games

MIA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
123–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA40292925123
MIL2824242197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MIL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic S 30 24 7 3
Duncan Robinson S 26 23 3 5
Tyler Herro S 30 19 3 5
Kevin Love 23 19 8 3
Bam Adebayo S 31 16 12 11
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 12 3 4
Jamal Cain 6 2 2 0
Haywood Highsmith 23 2 4 0
Cole Swider 6 2 1 1
Orlando Robinson 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 23 11 8
Malik Beasley S 28 16 3 0
Damian Lillard S 32 16 2 5
Bobby Portis 26 16 4 2
MarJon Beauchamp 8 8 2 0
Brook Lopez S 23 7 3 0
AJ Green 15 4 3 0
Patrick Beverley 13 3 2 2
Jae Crowder S 18 2 1 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 8 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
7 Caleb Martin MIA
8%
8 Jae Crowder MIL
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
10%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.5 10.4 6.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.5 3.9 6.7
3 Tyler Herro MIA 18.1 4.3 4.7
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.7 11.0 3.1
5 Brook Lopez MIL 14.6 6.7 2.3
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 7.8 1.9
7 Patrick Beverley MIL 10.5 3.2 5.1
8 Caleb Martin MIA 10.3 4.2 1.5
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.2 3.9 1.9
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.1 3.6 1.7
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.0 2.0 1.4
12 Jae Crowder MIL 8.2 3.4 1.9
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.8 3.1 2.7
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.0 2.8 0.9
15 Jamal Cain MIA 5.9 2.5 0.7
16 Kevin Love MIA 5.7 4.4 1.3
17 AJ Green MIL 5.4 1.7 0.8
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 4.6 3.0 1.0
19 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.1 2.2 0.9
20 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.0 1.5 1.6
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 2.3 0.8
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.6 0.7
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.4 1.7 0.6
24 Cole Swider MIA 2.3 0.7 0.4
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.3 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.