NBA games

OKC @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
127–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31293235127
ORL32203031113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home ORL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 35 33 2 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 32 3 5
Chet Holmgren S 32 13 9 1
Isaiah Joe 13 10 1 1
Josh Giddey S 27 10 5 5
Cason Wallace 16 8 2 1
Luguentz Dort S 31 8 4 4
Jaylin Williams 16 6 1 2
Aaron Wiggins 15 5 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 9 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 23 6 10
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 22 6 1
Jalen Suggs S 33 17 7 4
Franz Wagner S 34 15 7 2
Moritz Wagner 14 11 5 0
Gary Harris 25 6 2 1
Cole Anthony 12 5 4 1
Markelle Fultz S 18 4 7 4
Jett Howard 2 3 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 15 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Markelle Fultz ORL
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 5.6 7.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.2 5.8 6.9
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.6 5.5 5.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 21.5 4.3 5.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.5 8.4 2.3
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.1 6.2 1.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 11.1 5.6 3.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.3 3.0 2.7
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.5 3.8 3.3
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.3 3.9 1.2
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.1 2.8 1.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.4 1.3
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.0 2.1 1.2
14 Cole Anthony ORL 6.9 3.1 2.5
15 Gary Harris ORL 6.8 1.9 1.6
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.9 4.9 0.8
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.8 2.3 1.3
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.3 1.6 1.0
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 2.3 0.7
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.6 3.4 1.2
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.4 2.0 1.1
22 Joe Ingles ORL 4.4 1.7 1.6
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.2 1.0 0.6
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.8 1.6 0.5
25 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.6 4.4 1.0
26 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.2 1.5 0.6
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.0 1.0 0.5
28 Jett Howard ORL 1.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.