NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
118–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS36362620118
BKN30272528110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 41 14 5
Jaylen Brown S 37 19 1 4
Derrick White S 38 16 2 3
Al Horford S 37 16 6 4
Jrue Holiday S 35 14 5 12
Luke Kornet 15 5 5 1
Payton Pritchard 15 3 3 1
Sam Hauser 14 3 2 0
Oshae Brissett 9 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 40 27 2 3
Cam Thomas S 34 26 2 4
Lonnie Walker IV 17 15 3 3
Nic Claxton S 28 10 8 1
Jalen Wilson 23 9 4 2
Dennis Schroder 32 9 5 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 9 6 4 1
Ben Simmons S 24 5 6 8
Dorian Finney-Smith S 19 3 2 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 15 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
19%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
10 Al Horford BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.3 8.8 6.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.9 4.6 4.0
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 21.7 4.1 4.1
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.8 7.1 5.0
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.2 4.5 4.4
6 Dennis Schroder BKN 12.8 3.3 5.2
7 Derrick White BOS 12.6 3.7 4.1
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.4 10.8 2.2
9 Ben Simmons BKN 9.2 8.4 5.6
10 Al Horford BOS 8.9 6.4 2.3
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.8 7.0 1.9
12 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 8.8 3.9 3.4
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 7.7 1.7 1.7
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.4 3.0 1.9
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.1 2.1 0.9
16 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 7.1 4.4 1.9
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.3 2.8 1.3
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.3 5.2 0.8
19 Keon Johnson BKN 4.8 1.2 0.8
20 Noah Clowney BKN 4.4 2.5 0.6
21 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 4.3 2.1 0.9
22 Trendon Watford BKN 3.9 1.7 1.0
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.6 2.4 0.9
24 Neemias Queta BOS 2.9 3.4 0.3
25 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.8 0.9 0.4
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.5 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.