NBA games

MIN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
121–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28214032121
LAC24291928100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 24 4 3
Anthony Edwards S 32 23 7 8
Rudy Gobert S 33 17 11 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 15 2 5
Jaden McDaniels S 25 11 0 1
Naz Reid 27 11 7 1
Kyle Anderson 20 5 2 6
Daishen Nix 2 5 0 0
Monte Morris 18 5 2 2
Mike Conley S 24 5 4 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 18 4 1
Paul George S 30 18 6 3
James Harden S 32 17 2 6
Russell Westbrook 29 11 2 3
Amir Coffey 26 10 1 2
Norman Powell 17 6 2 0
Brandon Boston 5 6 0 0
Ivica Zubac S 23 6 11 2
Jordan Miller 5 4 1 0
Terance Mann S 25 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Paul George LAC
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 James Harden LAC
9%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
15%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 4.5 6.1
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.4 7.2 3.2
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.2 6.6 4.6
4 James Harden LAC 19.8 6.5 8.4
5 Paul George LAC 18.5 4.5 3.7
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 11.5 1.6
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 12.6 4.0 4.1
8 Norman Powell LAC 12.0 3.5 1.5
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.0 8.6 1.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 3.5 1.7
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.2 3.1 5.8
12 Amir Coffey LAC 9.9 2.2 1.3
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.0 2.4 2.7
14 Terance Mann LAC 9.0 2.9 1.5
15 Naz Reid MIN 8.7 4.2 1.1
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 6.9 6.5 1.2
17 Daniel Theis LAC 5.3 3.6 1.1
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.8 3.0 3.5
19 Monte Morris MIN 3.5 1.5 0.9
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.2 1.3 1.4
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.2 2.0 0.9
22 Daishen Nix MIN 3.0 0.8 0.9
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.8 1.1 0.6
24 Brandon Boston LAC 2.5 0.9 0.4
25 Josh Minott MIN 2.1 0.9 0.3
26 Bones Hyland LAC 1.9 0.3 0.7
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.9 0.3
28 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.