NBA games

WSH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
104–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH22363016104
DAL26252734112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DAL
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 34 25 7 3
Kyle Kuzma S 32 23 8 0
Tyus Jones S 33 14 3 16
Marvin Bagley III S 28 12 13 2
Richaun Holmes 13 10 2 0
Landry Shamet 14 6 1 0
Corey Kispert 24 5 4 1
Bilal Coulibaly 30 4 7 1
Jordan Poole S 27 3 6 3
Delon Wright 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 26 11 15
Kyrie Irving S 43 26 7 4
Daniel Gafford S 24 16 17 2
Josh Green S 29 13 4 2
Jaden Hardy 13 10 2 0
P.J. Washington S 36 9 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 5 3 1
Maxi Kleber 24 5 5 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 12 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 2-foot two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
21%
2 Marvin Bagley III WSH
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
5 Josh Green DAL
9%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
9 Maxi Kleber DAL
7%
10 Luka Doncic DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
46%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.9 10.6 11.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 28.2 5.3 6.7
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.5 6.1 4.4
4 Deni Avdija WSH 18.8 7.1 3.9
5 P.J. Washington DAL 18.7 5.6 2.9
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.3 4.0 2.1
7 Tyus Jones WSH 14.0 3.3 8.5
8 Josh Green DAL 14.0 4.0 3.3
9 Corey Kispert WSH 13.5 3.6 2.1
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.4 7.2 1.6
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.3 11.0 1.6
12 Jordan Poole WSH 12.3 2.9 4.4
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.3 3.5 1.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.5 3.2 1.6
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.8 2.3 2.3
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 8.4 3.8 2.0
17 Landry Shamet WSH 6.3 1.7 1.3
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.5 2.7 0.9
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.0 4.1 1.7
20 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.9 1.5 0.8
21 Delon Wright WSH 3.8 1.5 1.4
22 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.4 2.7 0.6
23 Brandon Williams DAL 3.3 1.4 1.1
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.0 2.0 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.9 1.6 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 1.0 0.4
27 Johnny Davis WSH 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.