NBA games

DEN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
95–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2321193295
MIL28323121112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 32 29 12 8
Aaron Gordon S 28 14 7 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 11 6 4
Christian Braun 22 7 5 0
Reggie Jackson 22 7 1 3
Collin Gillespie 13 6 1 1
Justin Holiday 19 5 2 1
Peyton Watson 21 5 4 1
Jamal Murray S 18 3 2 0
Braxton Key 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 36 18 5
Damian Lillard S 23 18 3 5
Bobby Portis 25 13 8 3
Malik Beasley S 30 9 5 1
AJ Green 15 9 0 1
Brook Lopez S 29 9 5 3
Pat Connaughton 22 5 5 5
Patrick Beverley 20 5 1 4
MarJon Beauchamp 6 3 2 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 6 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
8 Justin Holiday DEN
7%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
45%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 12.2 8.4
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.2 10.5 7.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.3 4.1 6.8
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.8 6.8
5 Brook Lopez MIL 15.1 6.5 2.0
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.4 6.2 1.5
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.7 6.1 2.5
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.9 7.5 1.6
9 Patrick Beverley MIL 10.3 3.5 4.9
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.8 2.8 1.3
11 Malik Beasley MIL 9.6 3.2 1.6
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.6 2.3
13 Jae Crowder MIL 7.8 3.2 1.8
14 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 4.2 1.5
15 Julian Strawther DEN 5.9 1.8 1.2
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 2.5 2.2
17 Christian Braun DEN 5.1 3.3 1.0
18 AJ Green MIL 5.1 1.5 0.7
19 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.1 1.9 0.9
20 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.4 0.7
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.7 1.3 1.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 2.8 0.8
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 3.7 0.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.1 0.8
25 Jay Huff DEN 3.0 1.5 0.5
26 Marques Bolden MIL 2.6 2.8 0.6
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.4 1.0 0.5
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.0 0.6
29 Braxton Key DEN 1.4 0.9 0.3
30 Chris Livingston MIL 1.3 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.