NBA games

NO @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
96–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO3130251096
MEM2621261487

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Herbert Jones S 35 17 9 1
Brandon Ingram S 36 16 2 6
Zion Williamson S 35 14 5 4
CJ McCollum S 33 11 5 2
Jose Alvarado 15 10 3 0
Trey Murphy III 25 9 3 2
Larry Nance Jr. 30 8 9 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 18 6 6 3
Naji Marshall 13 5 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 22 6 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 37 12 3 9
Luke Kennard 29 12 3 1
Yuta Watanabe 25 11 2 1
Lamar Stevens 26 10 7 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 25 6 3 6
Trey Jemison III 18 6 5 1
Santi Aldama S 29 6 4 5
John Konchar S 15 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
9 John Konchar MEM
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
26%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.6 5.2 4.1
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.3 6.4 6.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.8 5.1 5.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 18.8 4.7 3.9
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.4 5.7 4.3
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.6 9.3 2.3
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.7 2.7 4.0
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.2 5.6 2.9
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.8 3.4 2.3
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.4 3.9 1.2
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.3 2.9 4.0
12 Matt Ryan NO 8.7 2.4 1.3
13 John Konchar MEM 8.0 6.1 2.9
14 Derrick Rose MEM 7.4 1.9 3.5
15 Naji Marshall NO 6.3 2.5 1.8
16 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.2 2.4 1.5
17 Jose Alvarado NO 6.1 2.0 1.6
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.9 4.6 1.9
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 2.3 0.9
20 Trey Jemison III MEM 4.4 3.9 1.0
21 Matt Hurt MEM 3.9 1.4 0.6
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.6 2.4 0.6
23 Lamar Stevens MEM 2.4 1.6 0.4
24 E.J. Liddell NO 1.8 1.0 0.4
25 Yuta Watanabe MEM 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.