NBA games

NY @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
103–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY22212832103
HOU29281731105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home HOU
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 27 4 7
Donte DiVincenzo S 41 23 5 4
Josh Hart S 42 17 11 5
Bojan Bogdanovic 23 15 4 0
Precious Achiuwa S 39 8 17 0
Alec Burks 17 5 1 2
Jericho Sims S 29 4 7 0
Miles McBride 5 4 0 0
Taj Gibson 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 37 23 5 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 20 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 36 18 3 6
Aaron Holiday 26 18 3 4
Jalen Green S 30 16 5 4
Amen Thompson S 38 8 13 5
Jae'Sean Tate 12 2 1 0
Jeff Green 15 0 1 0
Nate Williams 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
12%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY
9%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Amen Thompson HOU
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
10 Taj Gibson NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.5 3.5 7.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.7 6.0 4.6
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 22.3 4.1 3.6
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.6 10.2 6.0
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 19.9 3.2 2.6
6 Alec Burks NY 14.3 3.7 2.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.2 3.3 2.2
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.6 6.2 1.7
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 11.2 8.8 1.4
10 Josh Hart NY 11.1 9.0 4.7
11 Amen Thompson HOU 10.4 7.1 3.6
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.2 9.5 2.3
13 Miles McBride NY 9.2 2.0 1.4
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 9.1 2.2 3.0
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.1 2.8 1.4
16 Nate Williams HOU 4.9 1.9 0.6
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.2 2.3 1.0
18 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.9 2.0 0.8
19 Taj Gibson NY 3.3 2.6 0.8
20 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 2.8 0.8
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.5 2.8 0.4
22 Nate Hinton HOU 2.5 1.2 0.5
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.1 0.4
24 Jacob Toppin NY 1.9 1.2 0.3
25 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.8 0.8 0.3
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 1.8 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.