NBA games

SA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
122–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA34333619122
TOR2822252499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home TOR
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 29 27 14 5
Devin Vassell S 27 25 3 6
Jeremy Sochan S 30 16 6 0
Keldon Johnson 28 12 4 6
Blake Wesley 20 10 2 2
Malaki Branham 21 10 0 3
Tre Jones S 28 7 7 10
Zach Collins 19 6 2 3
Cedi Osman 15 5 3 2
Julian Champagnie S 10 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick 22 18 2 0
Kelly Olynyk 21 17 5 2
RJ Barrett S 24 13 5 2
Jakob Poeltl S 20 12 6 1
Bruce Brown 31 12 5 4
Scottie Barnes S 30 7 9 9
Immanuel Quickley S 26 7 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. S 22 4 1 0
Jordan Nwora 7 3 3 1
Jontay Porter 7 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Vassell SA
12%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
6 Tre Jones SA
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.1 6.8 4.5
2 Devin Vassell SA 23.7 4.7 4.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.3 6.9 6.7
4 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.9 10.4 4.9
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.9 3.5 6.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.1 6.1 1.7
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.7 10.0 2.6
8 Tre Jones SA 12.8 3.3 6.4
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.9 7.9 2.5
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.4 2.5 1.7
11 Bruce Brown TOR 10.4 4.4 2.3
12 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.0 4.5 3.9
13 Zach Collins SA 8.1 3.8 2.3
14 Gradey Dick TOR 7.8 2.8 1.6
15 Cedi Osman SA 7.2 2.7 1.3
16 Jordan Nwora TOR 6.7 2.2 1.6
17 Blake Wesley SA 6.3 2.0 4.2
18 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 3.6 1.5
19 Malaki Branham SA 5.1 1.9 1.5
20 Jontay Porter TOR 5.0 3.1 1.4
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.9 2.0 1.0
22 Chris Boucher TOR 4.9 3.2 0.6
23 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 4.6 3.7 1.0
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.4 1.7 0.9
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.8 2.0 0.7
26 Devonte' Graham SA 2.8 1.1 1.4
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.