NBA games

CHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
136–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI26343739136
ATL33263334126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ATL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 29 3 5
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 29 2 7
Nikola Vucevic S 34 24 11 2
Coby White S 33 20 4 7
Jevon Carter 25 11 2 2
Torrey Craig S 27 9 6 5
Andre Drummond 16 7 11 0
Dalen Terry 21 7 4 1
Julian Phillips 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 28 2 4
De'Andre Hunter 28 23 6 0
Trae Young S 36 19 3 14
Dejounte Murray S 34 17 5 9
Jalen Johnson S 35 13 8 2
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 11 12 1
Saddiq Bey S 32 11 5 3
Bruno Fernando 12 4 7 0
Garrison Mathews 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes driving layup (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Coby White CHI
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 DeMar DeRozan CHI
8%
8 Clint Capela ATL
8%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
10 Trae Young ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.5 2.5 11.0
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.3 4.8 5.8
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.0 5.8 7.1
4 Coby White CHI 24.4 5.3 6.8
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.9 10.6 3.6
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.6 8.5 5.0
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 17.1 6.8 2.2
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.1 3.9 3.4
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.8 3.8 3.3
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.2 7.1 1.5
11 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.2 3.4 1.8
12 Alex Caruso CHI 11.2 5.3 3.6
13 Clint Capela ATL 10.6 9.6 0.9
14 Andre Drummond CHI 9.8 9.5 1.0
15 Patrick Williams CHI 9.7 2.9 1.9
16 Torrey Craig CHI 7.1 4.0 1.1
17 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.0 2.0 1.1
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.9 1.4 0.8
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.2 1.8 0.7
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.2 3.3 0.6
21 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.2 1.1
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.8 1.1
23 Patty Mills ATL 3.1 1.0 0.7
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.