NBA games

PHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
123–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI34322532123
CLE33293029121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 36 24 4 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 24 3 1
Tyrese Maxey S 42 22 4 9
Cameron Payne 24 15 2 4
Paul Reed S 29 13 8 1
KJ Martin S 26 10 8 1
Ricky Council IV 21 8 5 0
Mo Bamba 19 7 8 1
Terquavion Smith 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 36 4 6
Jarrett Allen S 37 21 10 3
Darius Garland S 31 21 0 9
Evan Mobley S 28 14 10 3
Caris LeVert 27 11 4 6
Max Strus S 30 10 4 4
Isaac Okoro 23 8 5 1
Sam Merrill 9 0 1 1
Georges Niang 18 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul Reed · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Paul Reed makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Paul Reed PHI
8%
9 Buddy Hield PHI
7%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.7 5.5 7.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.5 3.8 5.8
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.3 11.6 2.5
4 Darius Garland CLE 18.8 2.8 6.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 9.1 3.2
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.8 5.9 1.7
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.4 3.9 4.9
8 Max Strus CLE 11.3 5.1 3.2
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.4 3.0 1.7
10 Buddy Hield PHI 10.1 3.4 3.2
11 Paul Reed PHI 9.3 6.9 1.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.2 3.0 1.6
13 Ty Jerome CLE 6.8 2.2 3.8
14 KJ Martin PHI 6.5 3.0 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.5 1.4 1.3
16 Cameron Payne PHI 6.2 2.1 2.4
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.0 2.0 0.6
18 Nicolas Batum PHI 5.9 3.3 1.9
19 Mo Bamba PHI 4.6 4.9 0.9
20 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.2 0.8 1.0
21 Damian Jones CLE 3.6 2.5 0.9
22 Zhaire Smith CLE 2.9 2.0 0.8
23 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 2.0 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.