NBA games

IND @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
102–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24253122102
CHA25233330111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 22 5 1
Aaron Nesmith S 33 21 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 35 18 5 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 13 6 12
Andrew Nembhard S 33 10 2 7
T.J. McConnell 15 8 3 2
Obi Toppin 17 6 4 1
Isaiah Jackson 17 4 2 1
Bennedict Mathurin 15 0 2 1
Doug McDermott 8 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grant Williams 31 21 4 3
Miles Bridges S 39 20 10 7
Seth Curry 19 18 2 2
Nick Richards S 26 13 9 1
Brandon Miller S 29 12 4 1
Tre Mann S 34 11 9 7
Cody Martin S 30 11 5 2
Davis Bertans 12 3 0 0
Vasilije Micic 21 2 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Richards · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Nick Richards makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Tre Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Nick Richards CHA
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
8 Cody Martin CHA
8%
9 Tre Mann CHA
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.9 6.5 4.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.2 7.1 5.5
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.2 4.4 3.0
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.2 3.6 8.2
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.8 5.8 3.2
6 Myles Turner IND 16.6 5.9 2.0
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.5 2.9 6.0
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.5 4.5 2.1
9 Nick Richards CHA 12.7 9.0 1.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 10.5 4.0 4.5
11 Grant Williams CHA 10.3 4.0 1.8
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 3.9 2.0
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.1 2.8 5.6
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.5 2.2 1.1
15 Doug McDermott IND 5.9 1.6 1.1
16 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.5 1.3 2.9
17 Tre Mann CHA 5.1 2.1 2.4
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.6 3.8 1.0
19 Davis Bertans CHA 4.3 1.4 0.9
20 JT Thor CHA 3.8 2.2 0.6
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.7 1.5 0.8
22 Seth Curry CHA 3.6 1.3 0.7
23 Nate Mensah CHA 2.6 1.9 0.6
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.4 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.