NBA games

SAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27302630113
OKC29383327127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home OKC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 29 26 4 5
Domantas Sabonis S 42 21 11 14
De'Aaron Fox S 33 15 1 5
Davion Mitchell 20 14 4 2
Harrison Barnes S 21 14 1 0
Keegan Murray S 34 13 10 3
Keon Ellis 17 5 1 1
Kevin Huerter S 17 4 2 1
Trey Lyles 24 1 5 0
Alex Len 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 38 3 7
Jalen Williams S 37 32 8 9
Luguentz Dort S 33 17 9 0
Chet Holmgren S 31 14 4 2
Kenrich Williams 11 6 1 1
Jaylin Williams 22 5 1 2
Josh Giddey S 20 5 5 4
Aaron Wiggins 16 5 0 2
Isaiah Joe 16 3 3 2
Ousmane Dieng 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
20%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.6 6.0 8.0
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.9 4.0 5.0
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.7 4.2 5.6
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.8 14.4 9.0
5 Harrison Barnes SAC 16.6 3.8 1.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.8 9.3 2.5
7 Malik Monk SAC 15.7 3.7 4.9
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 13.5 4.0 3.3
9 Josh Giddey OKC 11.9 5.7 3.9
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.8 4.1 1.9
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.8 3.4 1.5
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.7 3.6 1.3
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.7 3.2 1.6
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 2.5 1.4
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.6 2.8 1.3
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.7 0.9
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.3 1.8 1.7
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.3 3.8 1.3
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 2.0 1.1
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.2 1.9 0.8
21 Chris Duarte SAC 3.9 1.5 1.0
22 JaVale McGee SAC 3.8 3.1 0.6
23 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.1 1.1
24 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.6 3.0 0.6
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.4 1.6 0.7
26 Keon Ellis SAC 3.1 1.5 0.9
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.9 1.9 0.8
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.9 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.