NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS26332724110
MIA22282927106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 26 10 9
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 25 9 3
Jaylen Brown S 37 20 9 2
Jrue Holiday S 35 15 3 6
Payton Pritchard 15 8 3 2
Derrick White S 38 6 2 4
Sam Hauser 15 6 0 0
Al Horford 25 4 5 0
Luke Kornet 2 0 0 0
Oshae Brissett 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 39 24 5 4
Bam Adebayo S 34 22 13 4
Duncan Robinson 33 15 2 1
Caleb Martin S 36 15 8 1
Terry Rozier S 24 13 4 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 29 6 3 1
Kevin Love 15 5 7 2
Orlando Robinson 0 2 0 0
Josh Richardson 7 2 0 2
Haywood Highsmith 23 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 6-foot two point shot (Kristaps Porzingis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
9 Caleb Martin MIA
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.4 8.7 5.7
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.1 7.2 2.5
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 19.2 6.4 5.1
4 Tyler Herro MIA 18.2 4.4 4.9
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.3 11.2 3.7
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.5 4.4 4.7
7 Derrick White BOS 13.7 4.3 4.2
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.4 4.3 5.2
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.9 4.1 2.2
10 Josh Richardson MIA 10.5 3.5 1.7
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 3.8 1.9
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 6.0 2.4
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.9 2.0 1.6
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.8 2.9 2.2
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.7 2.6 1.4
16 Jamal Cain MIA 6.1 2.5 0.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 5.3 1.0
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.3 2.3 0.8
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.2 3.2 1.4
20 Kevin Love MIA 5.1 3.9 1.4
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.4 2.2 0.8
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.1 0.9 0.5
23 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.4 1.3 0.4
24 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.1 1.1 0.6
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.7 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.