NO @ POR
NBA
Moda Center
·Final
93–84
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 29 | 18 | 17 | 29 | 93 |
| POR | 24 | 16 | 23 | 21 | 84 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
POR
63%
37%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 30 | 24 | 5 | 0 |
| Brandon Ingram S | 36 | 17 | 4 | 9 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 29 | 16 | 9 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones S | 37 | 14 | 4 | 5 |
| Naji Marshall | 18 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| CJ McCollum S | 32 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Herbert Jones ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 1-foot layup (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Deandre Ayton
POR
16%
2
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
14%
3
Brandon Ingram
NO
13%
4
Jerami Grant
POR
12%
5
Jabari Walker
POR
10%
6
Toumani Camara
POR
10%
7
CJ McCollum
NO
9%
8
Herbert Jones
NO
8%
9
Matisse Thybulle
POR
8%
10
Trey Murphy III
NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 24.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| 2 | Jerami Grant | POR | 24.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| 3 | CJ McCollum | NO | 18.8 | 4.7 | 3.7 |
| 4 | Deandre Ayton | POR | 15.7 | 9.4 | 1.7 |
| 5 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 14.7 | 9.8 | 2.6 |
| 6 | Scoot Henderson | POR | 13.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| 7 | Herbert Jones | NO | 11.9 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 8 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 10.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 9 | Jabari Walker | POR | 10.4 | 7.7 | 1.3 |
| 10 | Matt Ryan | NO | 9.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Ashton Hagans | POR | 8.1 | 2.7 | 5.6 |
| 12 | Matisse Thybulle | POR | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| 13 | Toumani Camara | POR | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 |
| 14 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
| 15 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 5.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Kris Murray | POR | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 18 | Naji Marshall | NO | 4.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 19 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 20 | Rayan Rupert | POR | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 21 | Ibou Badji | POR | 2.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Justin Minaya | POR | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 23 | Cody Zeller | NO | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Dalano Banton | POR | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 25 | Taze Moore | POR | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.