NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
112–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28302430112
GS33262529113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 32 4 6
Kevin Durant S 39 24 10 7
Bradley Beal S 34 15 6 5
Grayson Allen S 32 10 4 2
Josh Okogie 10 8 1 1
Eric Gordon 23 7 1 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 6 6 4
Drew Eubanks 16 4 4 1
Royce O'Neale 11 3 4 1
Bol Bol 9 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 30 9 6
Jonathan Kuminga S 34 21 5 2
Draymond Green S 30 15 7 9
Andrew Wiggins S 28 12 5 3
Gary Payton II 14 11 4 2
Brandin Podziemski 35 10 8 7
Lester Quinones 19 6 3 0
Klay Thompson S 24 5 2 1
Kevon Looney 5 3 4 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes two point shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
10%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
7 Kevin Durant PHX
8%
8 Klay Thompson GS
7%
9 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
15%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.9 4.5 5.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.1 4.8 6.5
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.6 6.8 6.1
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 23.5 7.1 3.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 21.9 4.6 6.0
6 Klay Thompson GS 17.1 3.6 2.9
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.2 5.1 2.0
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.5 8.8 4.1
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.5 6.2 5.0
10 David Roddy PHX 10.9 5.2 2.6
11 Eric Gordon PHX 10.3 2.7 1.9
12 Draymond Green GS 10.1 7.6 6.0
13 Grayson Allen PHX 9.6 3.1 3.4
14 Dario Saric GS 9.1 3.8 3.7
15 Moses Moody GS 7.9 2.3 1.0
16 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.5 3.3 1.3
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.2 4.7 1.3
18 Lester Quinones GS 6.2 3.1 1.5
19 Bol Bol PHX 5.3 3.7 0.8
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.0 3.0 0.8
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 3.2 0.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.7 3.3 0.7
23 Gui Santos GS 4.6 2.6 0.8
24 Theo Maledon PHX 4.2 1.3 1.8
25 Kevon Looney GS 4.1 4.2 1.3
26 Nassir Little PHX 3.1 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.