NBA games

CLE @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
119–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30372824119
TOR2423262295

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home TOR
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 30 18 15 2
Evan Mobley S 27 17 11 3
Donovan Mitchell S 31 15 4 6
Max Strus S 29 14 2 7
Georges Niang 18 13 1 0
Caris LeVert 22 13 5 5
Isaac Okoro 27 12 2 4
Darius Garland S 29 11 3 8
Sam Merrill 10 6 0 0
Damian Jones 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 24 10 10
Gradey Dick 22 14 0 1
RJ Barrett S 33 14 7 1
Kelly Olynyk 22 11 6 3
Immanuel Quickley S 32 10 3 4
Ochai Agbaji 19 8 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 23 6 2 2
Jakob Poeltl S 21 6 7 1
Bruce Brown 20 2 2 0
Garrett Temple 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes two point shot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
10%
8 Max Strus CLE
9%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.2 5.8 7.9
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 6.8 4.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 6.5 6.2
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.1 2.7 5.9
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.3 12.2 2.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.9 10.8 2.7
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.8 3.7 6.1
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 10.4 2.7
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.3 2.5 1.6
10 Caris LeVert CLE 10.9 3.6 4.7
11 Max Strus CLE 10.8 5.3 2.9
12 Bruce Brown TOR 10.2 4.5 2.1
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.7 2.9 1.4
14 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.0 3.7 3.5
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.8 3.3 1.6
16 Sam Merrill CLE 7.4 1.4 1.4
17 Gradey Dick TOR 7.1 2.8 1.5
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.6 2.2 3.7
19 Jordan Nwora TOR 6.4 2.2 1.6
20 Dean Wade CLE 5.8 3.5 1.0
21 Jontay Porter TOR 5.3 3.5 1.7
22 Chris Boucher TOR 4.6 3.2 0.5
23 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.5 1.8 0.6
24 Damian Jones CLE 3.3 2.5 0.8
25 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.1 1.2 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.