NBA games

IND @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
125–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND26353034125
NY27312429111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 31 23 8 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 22 3 12
Pascal Siakam S 31 19 6 3
T.J. McConnell 18 16 4 6
Aaron Nesmith S 31 13 3 0
Isaiah Jackson 17 12 8 1
Obi Toppin 17 9 2 0
Andrew Nembhard S 34 7 1 4
Bennedict Mathurin 23 4 6 0
Doug McDermott 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 39 3 4
Alec Burks 22 22 2 1
Precious Achiuwa S 43 15 6 0
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 14 3 4
Bojan Bogdanovic 33 11 3 1
Miles McBride 11 6 2 0
Josh Hart S 36 4 10 5
Taj Gibson S 19 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY
12%
3 Julius Randle NY
10%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
5 Myles Turner IND
8%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
9 Miles McBride NY
7%
10 Bojan Bogdanovic NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
21%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.9 3.9 7.3
2 Julius Randle NY 25.1 8.2 6.1
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 7.3 5.1
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY 22.7 4.3 3.6
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 20.8 3.2 2.9
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 16.0 6.0 2.9
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND 16.0 3.6 8.5
8 Myles Turner IND 15.8 5.9 1.6
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.7 4.2 2.1
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.5 2.7 5.7
11 Alec Burks NY 13.3 3.6 2.4
12 Precious Achiuwa NY 12.3 9.6 1.5
13 Josh Hart NY 11.9 8.8 4.8
14 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 2.4 5.6
15 Miles McBride NY 9.4 2.0 1.6
16 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.7 1.7
17 Doug McDermott IND 5.0 1.2 1.1
18 Ben Sheppard IND 4.3 1.6 0.9
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.1 3.3 0.8
20 Taj Gibson NY 3.2 2.6 0.8
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 3.0 0.4
22 Jacob Toppin NY 2.7 1.6 0.6
23 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 2.7 1.2 0.6
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 1.7 1.0 0.2
25 James Johnson IND 0.9 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.