NBA games

HOU @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
113–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31183529113
ATL19383827122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ATL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 37 26 14 10
Jeff Green S 31 19 6 2
Aaron Holiday 22 18 1 2
Dillon Brooks S 35 14 1 1
Amen Thompson S 33 12 11 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 9 10 2
Nate Williams 9 8 2 0
Reggie Bullock Jr. 15 3 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 2 2 0
Jock Landale 13 2 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 40 34 6 7
Saddiq Bey S 39 24 6 3
Jalen Johnson S 40 21 6 3
Trae Young S 33 18 4 8
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 11 7 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 31 8 7 2
Garrison Mathews 9 3 2 1
Kobe Bufkin 16 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
8 Trae Young ATL
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Amen Thompson HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
43%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.0 2.3 10.7
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.3 5.7 6.7
3 Jalen Green HOU 24.0 5.4 4.3
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.6 3.6 3.5
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.5 9.0 4.6
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.1 3.8 2.3
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.7 7.2 2.0
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.8 3.5 1.9
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.0 7.7 1.6
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.9 6.3 1.7
11 Clint Capela ATL 11.0 10.2 0.9
12 Amen Thompson HOU 10.4 7.9 3.8
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.9 2.4 2.8
14 Jeff Green HOU 5.6 2.8 1.3
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.5 1.7 1.0
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.4 2.7 1.1
17 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 4.0 2.2 0.9
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 3.9 1.4 0.9
19 Nate Williams HOU 3.7 1.7 0.4
20 Patty Mills ATL 3.6 1.3 0.9
21 Jock Landale HOU 2.8 2.5 0.5
22 Nate Hinton HOU 2.8 1.5 0.5
23 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.7 2.7 0.5
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.1 1.5 0.4
25 AJ Griffin ATL 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.