NBA games

PHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
119–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI33263129119
WSH26302433113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home WSH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 28 9 7
Buddy Hield S 36 23 5 6
Ricky Council IV 29 19 10 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 16 7 4
Paul Reed S 22 12 7 1
Tobias Harris S 33 11 7 3
Cameron Payne 21 6 1 6
KJ Martin 23 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyus Jones S 31 25 3 9
Deni Avdija S 39 21 13 5
Kyle Kuzma S 37 21 3 5
Bilal Coulibaly 30 13 5 1
Jordan Poole S 29 11 4 4
Landry Shamet 19 9 1 0
Corey Kispert 24 5 2 0
Delon Wright 7 4 2 4
Eugene Omoruyi 8 2 5 0
Marvin Bagley III S 15 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
8 Paul Reed PHI
7%
9 Jordan Poole WSH
7%
10 Cameron Payne PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
43%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.7 3.4 6.2
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.4 7.1 5.0
3 Tobias Harris PHI 19.4 5.9 5.0
4 Deni Avdija WSH 17.5 6.8 4.0
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.6 5.5 1.6
6 Corey Kispert WSH 14.4 3.7 2.3
7 Tyus Jones WSH 14.3 3.2 8.6
8 Jordan Poole WSH 13.5 2.9 4.4
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.1 6.8 1.6
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 3.6 2.0
11 Buddy Hield PHI 9.9 3.3 2.9
12 Paul Reed PHI 9.7 7.6 1.6
13 KJ Martin PHI 7.2 3.2 1.5
14 Cameron Payne PHI 7.0 2.4 2.2
15 Landry Shamet WSH 6.3 1.8 1.4
16 Terquavion Smith PHI 5.3 1.2 1.2
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.2 1.6 0.7
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.8 2.7 1.2
19 Delon Wright WSH 4.2 1.7 1.2
20 Robert Covington PHI 4.1 3.0 0.8
21 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.0 3.1 0.7
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.3 2.2 0.6
23 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 3.2 1.5 0.9
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.2 0.5
25 Jules Bernard WSH 2.4 0.9 0.6
26 Johnny Davis WSH 2.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.