NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
108–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHI242636157108
ORL2626282113114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 44 28 4 4
Nikola Vucevic S 43 26 17 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 19 2 2
Coby White S 45 14 4 7
Alex Caruso S 36 9 8 1
Dalen Terry 12 5 1 2
Andre Drummond 17 4 5 0
Torrey Craig 21 3 1 1
Julian Phillips 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 44 36 3 5
Paolo Banchero S 43 19 7 8
Cole Anthony 30 14 11 3
Jalen Suggs S 26 13 1 1
Moritz Wagner 9 7 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 25 7 12 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 6 3 1
Goga Bitadze 14 5 2 0
Markelle Fultz S 17 5 6 3
Gary Harris 22 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
9%
8 Markelle Fultz ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
37%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 24.4 4.8 5.4
2 Coby White CHI 24.2 5.6 6.2
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.0 5.8 6.5
4 Franz Wagner ORL 22.3 5.1 5.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.1 10.2 3.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.2 3.5 3.4
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.1 6.4 2.0
8 Markelle Fultz ORL 10.6 3.5 3.5
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.3 4.7 3.4
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.3 3.0 2.7
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.6 4.0 1.2
12 Andre Drummond CHI 9.3 8.1 0.8
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.7 2.7 1.7
14 Gary Harris ORL 8.2 1.9 1.9
15 Torrey Craig CHI 7.5 4.1 1.0
16 Cole Anthony ORL 6.3 2.7 2.4
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 3.8 0.8
18 Anthony Black ORL 6.2 1.9 1.3
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.3 1.3 0.9
20 Joe Ingles ORL 5.0 2.0 1.8
21 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.9 1.9 0.7
22 Jevon Carter CHI 4.1 1.2 1.0
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.0 4.7 1.2
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.6 0.5
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 2.0 0.4
26 Dalen Terry CHI 1.9 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.