NBA games

MEM @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
106–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28212730106
CHA25332730115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHA
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 29 3 3
GG Jackson 26 16 1 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 37 14 2 8
Luke Kennard 24 11 0 4
Santi Aldama S 32 11 6 3
Derrick Rose 16 10 4 5
John Konchar S 35 8 10 2
Jacob Gilyard S 21 6 3 4
Trey Jemison III 14 1 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 39 25 6 5
Brandon Miller S 31 18 6 1
Vasilije Micic 26 18 1 9
Grant Williams 32 15 8 1
Nick Richards S 25 13 7 1
Tre Mann S 27 9 4 9
Davis Bertans 12 9 2 1
Cody Martin S 28 5 7 2
Seth Curry 20 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vince Williams Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
16%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
14%
4 Nick Richards CHA
11%
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
11%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Leaky Black CHA
8%
8 Cody Martin CHA
8%
9 John Konchar MEM
7%
10 GG Jackson MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 26.4 5.5 4.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.8 7.2 4.4
3 Brandon Miller CHA 22.6 4.6 3.4
4 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 17.9 6.5 4.1
5 Luke Kennard MEM 13.0 3.2 4.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 12.7 5.8 2.9
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.7 9.2 1.3
8 GG Jackson MEM 12.5 4.5 1.8
9 Cody Martin CHA 10.3 3.9 4.7
10 Grant Williams CHA 8.9 3.7 1.9
11 John Konchar MEM 8.1 5.9 3.1
12 Jacob Gilyard MEM 7.6 1.8 4.1
13 Derrick Rose MEM 7.1 1.8 3.5
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.8 1.5 1.5
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 6.7 2.3 1.1
16 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.6 2.5 1.6
17 Trey Jemison III MEM 5.1 4.8 1.0
18 Leaky Black CHA 4.5 2.8 1.3
19 JT Thor CHA 3.9 2.4 0.7
20 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.7 1.2 1.8
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 2.9 1.9 0.5
22 Tre Mann CHA 2.9 1.5 1.4
23 Davis Bertans CHA 2.7 1.0 0.6
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.7 2.2 0.7
25 Seth Curry CHA 2.6 0.8 0.5
26 Amari Bailey CHA 2.6 1.3 0.5
27 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.