NBA games

SA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
103–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30182728103
BKN33273330123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BKN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 29 21 4 3
Keldon Johnson 30 19 4 1
Devin Vassell S 34 17 6 4
Jeremy Sochan S 29 8 5 3
Cedi Osman 12 8 5 0
Dominick Barlow 12 7 9 0
Tre Jones S 28 6 2 2
Blake Wesley 16 6 0 3
Malaki Branham 19 5 2 2
Julian Champagnie S 20 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 36 25 2 4
Nic Claxton S 27 20 11 0
Dennis Schroder 27 15 3 12
Mikal Bridges S 33 14 6 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 24 14 6 2
Ben Simmons S 22 13 3 5
Jalen Wilson 30 8 6 2
Trendon Watford 8 6 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 20 3 3 3
Noah Clowney 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Devin Vassell SA
12%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Tre Jones SA
8%
8 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
9 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.5 4.6 4.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.6 10.6 4.0
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 24.0 4.0 4.2
4 Devin Vassell SA 23.9 4.5 4.7
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.7 6.0 1.7
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.1 7.8 2.5
7 Tre Jones SA 13.1 4.0 7.1
8 Nic Claxton BKN 12.9 10.5 2.6
9 Dennis Schroder BKN 11.8 3.0 5.0
10 Zach Collins SA 9.5 4.1 2.4
11 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 9.0 3.7 4.1
12 Ben Simmons BKN 8.4 8.9 6.1
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.1 1.7 1.6
14 Cedi Osman SA 7.1 2.6 1.3
15 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 6.7 3.7 1.6
16 Blake Wesley SA 6.6 2.1 3.7
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.5 3.6 1.4
18 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.3 2.8 1.4
19 Noah Clowney BKN 5.4 3.0 0.7
20 Dominick Barlow SA 5.3 4.6 1.3
21 Malaki Branham SA 5.1 1.8 1.3
22 Trendon Watford BKN 4.8 1.9 1.1
23 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.8 1.9 0.7
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 2.0 0.6
25 Devonte' Graham SA 2.6 1.1 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.