NBA games

DET @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
106–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30282325106
LAC31182736112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 36 23 4 2
Cade Cunningham S 35 22 6 10
Simone Fontecchio 32 20 9 1
Jalen Duren S 35 10 18 1
Ausar Thompson S 28 10 8 5
Troy Brown Jr. 19 8 2 2
Marcus Sasser 14 5 2 4
James Wiseman 13 4 3 1
Shake Milton 12 4 3 0
Stanley Umude 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 33 5 3
Kawhi Leonard S 35 24 4 5
James Harden S 36 14 6 8
Russell Westbrook 28 13 3 2
Amir Coffey 27 12 1 0
Ivica Zubac S 20 6 5 1
Mason Plumlee 12 6 5 0
Norman Powell 23 2 3 0
Terance Mann S 24 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Paul George makes 3-foot dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
11%
2 Paul George LAC
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
7 James Harden LAC
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Simone Fontecchio DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
18%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.7 6.6 4.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.2 3.9 8.6
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.6 4.4 4.6
4 James Harden LAC 20.7 6.4 8.8
5 Paul George LAC 19.4 4.7 4.1
6 Jalen Duren DET 15.5 11.0 2.7
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 14.0 4.6 4.9
8 Norman Powell LAC 13.9 3.7 1.6
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.7 6.0 2.2
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.1 10.1 1.6
11 Marcus Sasser DET 11.1 2.1 3.9
12 Amir Coffey LAC 10.0 2.2 1.4
13 Terance Mann LAC 9.9 2.9 1.6
14 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 5.5 1.5
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 9.6 4.5 1.8
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 7.3 7.0 1.4
17 Stanley Umude DET 6.8 2.7 1.1
18 Daniel Theis LAC 6.5 4.0 1.5
19 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.6 0.6
20 Mike Muscala DET 4.9 2.6 0.9
21 Jared Rhoden DET 3.7 1.8 0.8
22 Brandon Boston LAC 3.7 1.4 0.7
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 2.1 1.0
24 Shake Milton DET 2.7 1.1 0.7
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 1.2 0.6
26 Bones Hyland LAC 2.4 0.5 0.7
27 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.1 0.9 0.7
28 Jordan Miller LAC 2.1 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.