NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
111–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30322722111
DAL47243936146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 25 6 5
Cason Wallace 25 15 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 22 13 12 0
Josh Giddey S 23 11 3 3
Jalen Williams S 27 9 3 7
Lindy Waters III 14 9 3 1
Olivier Sarr 8 8 3 0
Aaron Wiggins 22 7 4 0
Isaiah Joe 16 6 1 1
Luguentz Dort S 18 5 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 31 32 8 9
Kyrie Irving S 33 25 6 8
Daniel Gafford 17 19 9 0
P.J. Washington 24 14 5 1
Maxi Kleber S 25 12 12 3
Jaden Hardy 10 11 0 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 10 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 8 4 1
Josh Green S 27 6 2 2
A.J. Lawson 6 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Maxi Kleber · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Maxi Kleber makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
7 Josh Green DAL
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Maxi Kleber DAL
7%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 5.7 8.3
2 Luka Doncic DAL 31.2 10.3 11.0
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.8 5.4 6.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.0 4.1 5.6
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.4 5.7 2.7
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.0 3.9 2.0
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.7 8.8 2.6
8 Josh Green DAL 14.5 4.2 3.0
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.7 10.0 1.6
10 Josh Giddey OKC 11.4 6.0 3.9
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.8 3.3 1.5
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.7 2.9 1.4
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.1 3.4 1.4
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.1 2.1 1.9
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 7.6 3.1 1.8
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.1 2.4 1.3
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.3 2.1 1.0
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.7 3.6 1.2
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.6 2.7 0.7
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.4 1.7 0.9
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.2 4.8 1.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 2.5 0.9
23 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.1 1.7 0.8
24 Brandon Williams DAL 4.0 1.4 1.1
25 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 2.0 0.8
26 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.0 1.3 0.5
27 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.1 2.2 0.3
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.8 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.