NBA games

NO @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO39352820122
LAL36512824139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 32 30 9 5
Brandon Ingram S 35 22 7 7
CJ McCollum S 30 19 4 3
Herbert Jones S 29 13 0 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 10 10 2
Dyson Daniels 27 7 1 1
Jose Alvarado 21 7 3 2
Trey Murphy III 19 5 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 3 5 0 0
Larry Nance Jr. 19 4 6 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 40 30 2 5
Austin Reaves S 31 27 2 4
LeBron James S 38 21 4 14
Rui Hachimura S 37 21 5 1
Anthony Davis S 29 20 6 6
Christian Wood 6 9 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 17 6 8 0
Taurean Prince 21 3 2 1
Skylar Mays 16 2 1 0
Dylan Windler 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes 1-foot layup (Jonas Valanciunas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 LeBron James LAL
9%
7 Brandon Ingram NO
9%
8 CJ McCollum NO
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
6%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.8 7.6 8.1
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.5 6.9 6.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.9 4.9 5.8
4 Anthony Davis LAL 23.7 11.5 5.2
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.3 3.2 6.6
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.5 3.4 6.6
7 CJ McCollum NO 19.4 4.9 3.9
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.1 9.2 2.4
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 3.6 2.2
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.4 3.9 1.3
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.7 3.9 1.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 10.5 3.5 1.7
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.4 2.5 1.2
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.3 5.0 1.7
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 1.7 1.7
16 Max Christie LAL 5.5 2.2 1.0
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.2 3.1 0.9
18 Dyson Daniels NO 5.0 3.4 1.9
19 Christian Wood LAL 5.0 3.6 1.0
20 Skylar Mays LAL 4.2 1.7 1.3
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.9 2.5 0.7
22 Cody Zeller NO 2.9 2.2 0.7
23 Dylan Windler LAL 1.6 0.5 0.4
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.4 0.6 0.4
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.