NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
106–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN35222920106
SAC32353929135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 23 8 7
Aaron Gordon S 27 14 3 2
Christian Braun 27 13 3 1
Jamal Murray S 26 12 1 3
Justin Holiday S 37 10 3 2
Reggie Jackson 16 8 1 4
Julian Strawther 20 7 3 2
Zeke Nnaji 18 7 2 3
Peyton Watson S 20 4 3 1
Collin Gillespie 9 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 20 23 1 2
Keegan Murray S 27 17 1 2
Domantas Sabonis S 31 17 17 10
Trey Lyles 21 15 7 0
De'Aaron Fox S 28 15 2 10
Kevin Huerter S 21 12 2 0
Alex Len 15 11 2 1
Harrison Barnes S 21 9 2 2
Kessler Edwards 6 6 1 0
Sasha Vezenkov 16 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Justin Holiday DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
16%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.7 12.8 9.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.2 4.9 7.5
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.7 4.2 4.6
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.5 13.4 8.6
5 Harrison Barnes SAC 16.4 3.6 1.6
6 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.5 3.9 3.4
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 6.1 1.7
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.8 3.5 4.9
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.8 6.6 2.7
10 Keegan Murray SAC 12.0 4.5 2.0
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 8.9 2.7 2.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 8.7 4.2 1.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.8 3.1 1.4
14 Julian Strawther DEN 5.8 1.8 1.1
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.1 1.4 1.6
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.9 1.8 0.6
17 Christian Braun DEN 4.7 3.0 1.0
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 3.4 0.6
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.2 2.6 0.3
20 Justin Holiday DEN 3.0 1.3 0.8
21 Alex Len SAC 2.3 3.0 0.8
22 Keon Ellis SAC 2.3 1.1 0.5
23 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.1 0.7 0.4
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.0 1.0 0.4
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 1.3 0.5
26 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 1.0 0.3
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.