NBA games

CHA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
84–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1721252184
MIL31353321120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 29 16 6 3
Nick Richards S 30 16 11 0
Bryce McGowens 30 15 5 0
Nick Smith Jr. 24 13 3 3
Miles Bridges S 31 11 5 3
Cody Martin S 24 5 5 5
Leaky Black S 30 4 6 2
Nate Mensah 18 4 4 0
JT Thor 19 0 3 0
Amari Bailey 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 29 26 4 8
Malik Beasley S 24 21 2 2
Bobby Portis 21 18 7 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 24 15 14 3
Brook Lopez S 27 11 7 2
Patrick Beverley 12 6 1 4
Jae Crowder S 30 5 2 3
Pat Connaughton 16 5 6 1
MarJon Beauchamp 8 4 3 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 11 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes layup (Malik Beasley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Nick Richards CHA
9%
7 Malik Beasley MIL
9%
8 Cody Martin CHA
7%
9 Pat Connaughton MIL
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
46%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.4 11.3 8.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.3 4.1 6.9
3 Miles Bridges CHA 24.6 7.2 4.2
4 Brandon Miller CHA 22.2 4.4 3.3
5 Brook Lopez MIL 16.4 7.0 2.3
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.6 7.5 1.7
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.3 9.4 1.4
8 Patrick Beverley MIL 11.0 3.8 5.3
9 Malik Beasley MIL 10.1 3.8 1.8
10 Cody Martin CHA 10.0 3.8 4.3
11 Jae Crowder MIL 8.2 3.5 2.0
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.4 2.6 2.2
13 AJ Green MIL 6.3 1.8 0.9
14 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.1 1.5 1.4
15 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.2 2.0 1.0
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.2 2.2 1.1
17 Ish Smith CHA 4.9 2.3 3.7
18 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.8 1.7 2.0
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.4 3.4 1.2
20 Leaky Black CHA 4.2 2.6 1.0
21 Tre Mann CHA 3.0 1.5 1.3
22 JT Thor CHA 2.9 1.9 0.5
23 Marques Bolden MIL 2.9 3.1 0.7
24 James Bouknight CHA 2.7 0.7 0.5
25 Davis Bertans CHA 2.7 1.0 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.4 0.8
27 Nate Mensah CHA 2.5 2.1 0.6
28 Frank Ntilikina CHA 2.4 1.2 1.2
29 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.