NBA games

HOU @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU20292233104
TOR34272719107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home TOR
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 30 20 2 3
Cam Whitmore 18 17 3 1
Aaron Holiday 31 12 3 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 12 10 2
Jeff Green 27 11 6 4
Amen Thompson S 32 8 9 4
Alperen Sengun S 21 7 7 1
Jalen Green S 22 7 2 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 11 6 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 15 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 38 25 4 2
RJ Barrett S 36 21 5 7
Jakob Poeltl S 37 16 13 3
Scottie Barnes S 35 13 10 8
Bruce Brown 22 11 3 0
Gary Trent Jr. S 34 8 1 3
Jontay Porter 11 7 3 0
Gradey Dick 20 6 1 1
Jordan Nwora 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 4-foot layup (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
15%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.0 11.5 6.4
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.7 5.3 4.6
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.4 6.5 6.4
4 RJ Barrett TOR 23.2 6.9 4.0
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.0 3.6 6.2
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 14.8 4.7 1.4
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.2 3.7 2.1
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.5 10.6 2.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.3 6.3 1.7
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.9 2.6 1.6
11 Bruce Brown TOR 10.7 5.0 2.2
12 Amen Thompson HOU 9.5 7.5 3.5
13 Kelly Olynyk TOR 8.5 4.0 3.7
14 Gradey Dick TOR 7.1 2.8 1.8
15 Jordan Nwora TOR 6.8 2.5 1.6
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.3 1.7 2.4
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.3 3.5 0.7
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 2.5 1.0
19 Jontay Porter TOR 4.5 3.2 1.9
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.3 1.2
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 1.5 0.9
22 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.6 2.0 0.7
23 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.1 1.5 0.5
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.8 1.3 0.7
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.8 2.7 0.5
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.8 2.5 0.5
27 Nate Hinton HOU 2.7 1.4 0.5
28 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.2 1.4 0.4
29 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.