NBA games

WSH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
129–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH35361642129
BOS31333633133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BOS
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 42 24 11 4
Corey Kispert 24 24 6 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 33 21 8 3
Jordan Poole S 37 19 2 5
Tyus Jones S 37 17 2 9
Kyle Kuzma S 37 17 4 5
Eugene Omoruyi 13 4 5 2
Landry Shamet 14 3 1 0
Delon Wright 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 35 10 8
Kristaps Porzingis S 33 34 11 0
Jrue Holiday S 34 20 7 5
Jaylen Brown S 35 18 7 3
Payton Pritchard 17 11 6 1
Al Horford 23 6 5 1
Sam Hauser 16 5 1 1
Derrick White S 33 4 2 6
Luke Kornet 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes two point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 8.7 5.8
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.2 7.2 4.7
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.0 6.6 3.0
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 20.2 6.5 5.5
5 Derrick White BOS 17.0 4.5 4.3
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 16.4 4.5 4.9
7 Deni Avdija WSH 14.9 6.5 3.7
8 Tyus Jones WSH 12.6 3.1 7.9
9 Corey Kispert WSH 12.5 3.3 2.0
10 Jordan Poole WSH 12.4 3.0 3.5
11 Al Horford BOS 10.5 6.7 2.7
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.2 3.6 1.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 2.7 1.5
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.6 2.8 2.4
15 Landry Shamet WSH 6.5 1.7 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 5.7 1.1
17 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.7 2.1 1.0
18 Delon Wright WSH 4.2 1.9 1.3
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.2 2.4 1.0
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.0 0.6
21 JD Davison BOS 2.3 1.0 1.4
22 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 1.1 0.4
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.1 2.1 0.4
24 Jules Bernard WSH 2.0 0.8 0.5
25 Johnny Davis WSH 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.