NBA games

ATL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
127–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37363024127
PHI26303035121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHI
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 37 1 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 21 8 2
Saddiq Bey S 34 18 11 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 13 3 3
De'Andre Hunter 24 11 2 2
Jalen Johnson S 38 11 11 6
Garrison Mathews 14 8 1 1
Bruno Fernando 14 8 3 0
Trent Forrest 8 0 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 28 12 1
Tobias Harris S 39 21 6 7
Buddy Hield S 40 20 4 6
Cameron Payne S 36 20 3 6
Paul Reed S 32 12 13 1
Terquavion Smith 13 8 0 0
KJ Martin 19 5 6 0
Ricky Council IV 7 4 2 0
Mo Bamba 16 3 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 7-foot two point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
5 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
6 Trae Young ATL
9%
7 Paul Reed PHI
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.2 2.6 11.8
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.6 5.7 6.9
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 19.4 8.7 4.3
4 Tobias Harris PHI 19.4 5.7 4.3
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 18.9 3.4 3.9
6 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.8 6.4 2.1
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.2 3.6 1.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.9 5.3 1.6
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.7 7.6 1.6
10 Buddy Hield PHI 9.3 3.3 2.7
11 Paul Reed PHI 8.0 7.1 1.6
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.1 3.7 2.2
13 KJ Martin PHI 6.7 2.7 1.4
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.9 1.8 0.9
15 Cameron Payne PHI 5.9 1.9 1.9
16 Mo Bamba PHI 5.1 5.2 0.9
17 Terquavion Smith PHI 5.1 1.3 1.2
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.1 1.7 0.7
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.7 3.6 0.7
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.5 1.8 0.8
21 Kenneth Lofton Jr. PHI 3.3 1.8 0.9
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.0 1.2 1.7
23 AJ Griffin ATL 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.