NBA games

DET @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
128–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET253128368128
POR304126232122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home POR
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 37 27 22 1
Jaden Ivey S 48 26 3 4
Cade Cunningham S 39 23 2 5
Marcus Sasser 38 17 2 11
Stanley Umude 29 14 2 0
James Wiseman 16 7 5 1
Ausar Thompson S 29 6 5 1
Mike Muscala S 17 6 3 2
Jared Rhoden 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 45 49 8 6
Anfernee Simons S 25 29 2 5
Jabari Walker S 43 17 11 2
Kris Murray 28 12 3 3
Toumani Camara S 36 9 10 1
Ashton Hagans 28 4 2 3
Matisse Thybulle S 38 2 1 7
Ibou Badji 10 0 0 2
Justin Minaya 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:19 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Kris Murray POR
7%
8 Ashton Hagans POR
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 24.3 3.9 6.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.3 4.4 8.9
3 Jaden Ivey DET 22.9 4.5 5.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.5 4.3 3.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 14.7 11.3 2.9
6 Scoot Henderson POR 13.9 3.0 3.8
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.1 6.0 2.3
8 Marcus Sasser DET 10.5 2.0 3.5
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.0 5.9 1.5
10 Jabari Walker POR 9.8 7.8 1.2
11 Ashton Hagans POR 8.6 2.8 6.2
12 Stanley Umude DET 6.8 2.6 1.1
13 Duop Reath POR 6.6 2.7 1.3
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.3 1.9 1.5
15 Toumani Camara POR 5.3 3.3 1.1
16 Malcolm Cazalon DET 5.2 1.3 1.4
17 Mike Muscala DET 5.0 2.6 0.8
18 Kris Murray POR 4.1 1.6 0.8
19 James Wiseman DET 3.8 3.1 0.5
20 Jared Rhoden DET 3.7 1.5 0.8
21 Rayan Rupert POR 3.2 1.5 0.8
22 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.4 0.6
23 Ibou Badji POR 2.5 3.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.