NBA games

DEN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29302431114
LAL23263027106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 29 7 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 27 8 2
Nikola Jokic S 36 24 13 9
Aaron Gordon S 32 11 4 3
Reggie Jackson 26 7 4 3
DeAndre Jordan 11 6 8 1
Peyton Watson 25 5 4 2
Christian Braun 13 3 1 1
Justin Holiday S 22 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 32 9 3
LeBron James S 35 25 9 7
Austin Reaves S 36 15 2 10
Taurean Prince 34 13 3 2
Jaxson Hayes 17 9 6 1
Max Christie S 15 7 2 1
Christian Wood 19 3 4 1
Rui Hachimura S 38 2 4 0
Skylar Mays 7 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
13%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Justin Holiday DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.2 13.3 9.6
2 LeBron James LAL 26.6 7.5 7.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.7 4.8 7.4
4 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 11.6 5.2
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.0 3.2 6.6
6 Austin Reaves LAL 18.8 3.4 5.9
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.7 5.9 1.5
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.3 6.9 2.8
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.8 3.6 1.4
10 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 3.3 1.6
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.8 2.2 2.0
12 Peyton Watson DEN 7.5 3.6 1.3
13 Julian Strawther DEN 5.7 1.7 1.1
14 Max Christie LAL 4.9 1.9 0.9
15 Christian Wood LAL 4.8 3.3 1.0
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.4 2.4 0.8
17 Christian Braun DEN 4.1 3.0 0.7
18 Skylar Mays LAL 2.8 1.0 0.8
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 3.2 0.4
20 Justin Holiday DEN 2.3 1.0 0.6
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.0 1.6 0.5
22 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.0 0.9 0.5
23 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 1.1 0.4
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.3 0.4 0.3
25 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.3 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.