NBA games

UTAH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH28382425115
PHX40353420129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home PHX
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 34 22 5 1
John Collins S 31 21 14 1
Collin Sexton S 24 19 4 8
Jordan Clarkson 32 13 1 4
Keyonte George 30 11 0 6
Walker Kessler S 27 10 9 2
Kris Dunn S 24 9 4 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 7 4 2
Taylor Hendricks 18 3 8 1
Omer Yurtseven 2 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 31 8 7
Bradley Beal S 37 30 2 7
Eric Gordon S 38 19 2 4
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 16 8 3
Drew Eubanks 18 12 7 0
Grayson Allen S 35 8 3 14
Bol Bol 14 6 1 0
Josh Okogie 14 4 3 1
Nassir Little 16 3 3 1
Saben Lee 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
17%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
15%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
13%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
10 Walker Kessler UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.1 6.6 6.2
2 Bradley Beal PHX 23.2 4.8 6.6
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.3 7.3 3.0
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.6 2.9 6.7
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.0 3.4 4.3
6 John Collins UTAH 16.0 8.8 1.7
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.7 9.9 5.2
8 Keyonte George UTAH 11.7 2.8 3.5
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.5 2.1 3.1
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.3 2.9 2.1
11 Grayson Allen PHX 11.0 3.5 2.9
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.4 7.0 1.3
13 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.8 3.1 4.5
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.4 4.7 1.4
15 Bol Bol PHX 5.7 3.8 1.0
16 Josh Okogie PHX 5.4 3.1 1.1
17 Theo Maledon PHX 5.3 1.8 2.4
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.8 1.8 0.5
19 Micah Potter UTAH 3.7 2.1 0.6
20 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.0 2.5 0.4
21 Saben Lee PHX 2.9 1.4 0.8
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.7 1.4 0.6
23 Nassir Little PHX 2.7 1.3 0.5
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.5 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.