NBA games

MIN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
129–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN30333927129
MIL26272230105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 26 3 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 19 5 1
Mike Conley S 31 18 5 9
Naz Reid 24 17 4 0
Rudy Gobert S 35 16 11 4
Jaden McDaniels S 19 8 3 0
Kyle Anderson 24 8 5 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 7 3 4
Josh Minott 4 5 1 0
Daishen Nix 3 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
AJ Green 22 27 2 3
Jae Crowder S 37 21 8 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 27 17 3 7
Bobby Portis 29 12 9 3
Brook Lopez S 26 12 5 2
Pat Connaughton S 37 9 2 9
Malik Beasley S 33 3 4 3
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 5 2 0 0
MarJon Beauchamp 5 2 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 18 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jae Crowder · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jae Crowder makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Pat Connaughton MIL
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
49%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.1 10.2 7.9
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 25.4 7.9 3.3
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 4.9 5.9
4 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 3.9 6.5
5 Brook Lopez MIL 15.3 6.8 2.2
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.9 11.4 1.5
7 Bobby Portis MIL 11.6 6.5 1.2
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.1 3.5 1.9
9 Malik Beasley MIL 10.0 3.4 1.6
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.7 3.1 5.9
11 Naz Reid MIN 9.5 4.1 1.3
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.2 2.7 2.6
13 Jae Crowder MIL 6.4 2.9 1.4
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.6 2.2 1.4
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.4 2.9 3.5
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.4 1.8 0.9
17 AJ Green MIL 4.4 1.4 0.6
18 Daishen Nix MIN 3.8 1.3 1.2
19 Leonard Miller MIN 3.7 2.6 0.5
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.4 3.0 0.8
21 Luka Garza MIN 2.4 1.0 0.3
22 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.8 0.3
23 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.6 0.9 0.3
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.1 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.