NBA games

CHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
118–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI27252838118
MEM31252529110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MEM
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 30 8 1
Andre Drummond 31 21 13 1
Nikola Vucevic S 39 20 10 5
Coby White S 36 20 6 8
Ayo Dosunmu S 27 10 0 2
Jevon Carter 16 7 0 2
Alex Caruso S 29 7 4 4
Torrey Craig 16 3 5 1
Julian Phillips 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 28 2 4
GG Jackson 32 27 9 1
Santi Aldama S 37 15 5 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 29 15 2 6
Vince Williams Jr. S 37 13 11 8
Jacob Gilyard 20 8 0 4
John Konchar S 30 4 3 1
Trey Jemison III 15 0 2 0
Tosan Evbuomwan 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
18%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
3 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Coby White CHI
9%
6 Andre Drummond CHI
8%
7 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
8 Trey Jemison III MEM
7%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.5 5.4 4.1
2 Coby White CHI 24.1 5.6 6.2
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.1 5.0 6.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.5 11.0 3.5
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 19.0 5.9 3.8
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 3.9 3.4
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.6 3.1 4.2
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 5.6 2.6
9 GG Jackson MEM 11.3 3.7 1.5
10 Alex Caruso CHI 11.1 4.7 3.7
11 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.7 3.1 4.0
12 Torrey Craig CHI 8.5 4.6 1.2
13 Andre Drummond CHI 8.4 8.3 0.8
14 John Konchar MEM 7.5 5.5 2.9
15 Derrick Rose MEM 7.2 1.7 3.4
16 Jacob Gilyard MEM 7.1 1.8 3.6
17 Ziaire Williams MEM 6.3 2.4 1.5
18 Trey Jemison III MEM 5.2 4.4 0.9
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.4 1.1 0.6
20 Tosan Evbuomwan MEM 4.4 3.2 1.1
21 Matt Hurt MEM 4.3 1.5 0.7
22 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.3 1.0
23 Julian Phillips CHI 4.1 1.7 0.6
24 Adama Sanogo CHI 4.0 2.8 0.5
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.9 2.2 0.5
26 Chimezie Metu MEM 2.5 2.3 0.5
27 Dalen Terry CHI 2.2 1.1 0.7
28 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.0 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.