NBA games

DAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
122–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28312835122
NY22262337108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NY
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 39 8 11
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 19 2 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 18 5 3
Kyrie Irving S 36 16 5 6
Josh Green S 32 15 6 3
Dwight Powell 21 5 6 1
Jaden Hardy 14 4 2 1
Markieff Morris 6 3 2 0
Maxi Kleber S 27 2 4 3
Brandon Williams 1 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 43 36 2 3
Josh Hart S 39 23 10 12
Miles McBride S 45 21 6 5
Precious Achiuwa S 41 13 16 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 15 10 4 2
Charlie Brown Jr. 22 3 2 0
Jacob Toppin 12 2 2 1
Taj Gibson 22 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 19-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Julius Randle NY
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Donte DiVincenzo NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
7 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
8 Josh Green DAL
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
21%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 33.6 9.6 10.3
2 Jalen Brunson NY 31.1 4.2 7.5
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 28.1 5.6 6.2
4 Julius Randle NY 23.4 7.8 6.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 20.7 4.1 3.8
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.7 4.2 2.0
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.8 4.0 1.8
8 Josh Green DAL 14.3 3.9 3.0
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 10.3 7.9 1.2
10 Josh Hart NY 10.3 8.7 3.9
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 9.7 9.8 2.5
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.0 3.2 1.4
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.7 1.8
14 Miles McBride NY 7.8 1.5 1.2
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 7.6 2.8 1.8
16 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 4.5 1.7
17 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.5 0.9
18 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.6 1.3 0.7
19 Brandon Williams DAL 3.6 1.0 1.0
20 Taj Gibson NY 2.8 2.2 0.7
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 3.1 0.5
22 Jacob Toppin NY 2.5 2.2 0.5
23 Markieff Morris DAL 1.9 1.2 0.5
24 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.4 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.