NBA games

SA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA20244126111
ORL23383729127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home ORL
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 35 30 5 4
Victor Wembanyama S 23 15 1 2
Keldon Johnson 24 12 4 1
Zach Collins 25 12 3 3
Blake Wesley 25 10 2 7
Tre Jones S 23 10 1 6
Jeremy Sochan S 28 9 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 21 8 5 2
Cedi Osman 15 3 1 0
Malaki Branham 20 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 28 34 7 7
Jalen Suggs S 29 17 3 2
Paolo Banchero S 31 16 5 6
Cole Anthony 19 12 2 2
Moritz Wagner 16 11 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 10 6 1
Jonathan Isaac 19 9 6 1
Joe Ingles 16 8 3 4
Gary Harris 19 5 0 4
Caleb Houstan 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 3-foot layup (Markelle Fultz assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Devin Vassell SA
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
10%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Tre Jones SA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
37%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 6.4 6.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.1 10.6 4.2
3 Devin Vassell SA 22.7 4.3 4.8
4 Franz Wagner ORL 20.3 4.7 4.6
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.1 7.3 1.9
6 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.6 7.7 2.8
7 Tre Jones SA 13.5 3.8 6.8
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.1 5.6 1.6
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 11.3 3.7 3.7
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.6 3.2 2.7
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.1 4.0 1.2
12 Zach Collins SA 8.8 4.1 2.1
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.2 2.1 1.9
14 Cedi Osman SA 6.9 2.5 1.4
15 Cole Anthony ORL 6.6 2.8 2.7
16 Anthony Black ORL 6.6 2.3 1.3
17 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 3.5 1.3
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.2 2.1 1.1
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.1 3.7 0.8
20 Chuma Okeke ORL 6.1 2.5 0.9
21 Blake Wesley SA 5.7 1.8 3.3
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 6.1 1.4
23 Malaki Branham SA 5.5 1.6 1.0
24 Joe Ingles ORL 5.4 2.1 1.8
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.7 1.8 0.5
26 Devonte' Graham SA 2.4 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.