NBA games

GS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
131–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS45252536131
IND34241833109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home IND
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 42 2 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 33 18 2 4
Gui Santos 21 13 8 1
Andrew Wiggins S 26 11 4 5
Dario Saric 18 11 7 3
Brandin Podziemski S 34 9 7 7
Draymond Green S 28 8 8 5
Lester Quinones 27 6 5 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 6 2 0
Moses Moody 13 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 16 8 2
Myles Turner S 23 15 7 1
Jalen Smith 13 14 5 0
Aaron Nesmith S 26 13 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin 24 11 0 1
Andrew Nembhard S 25 10 1 3
Ben Sheppard 20 8 0 0
Obi Toppin 20 7 1 2
T.J. McConnell 22 6 0 8
Tyrese Haliburton S 26 5 1 11

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
35%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
6%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
60%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
18%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 29.5 4.9 5.6
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 24.4 6.9 3.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.5 6.8 5.4
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.3 3.9 8.2
5 Myles Turner IND 15.7 5.9 1.6
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.4 5.9 2.8
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.0 5.1 2.2
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.7 4.2 2.1
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.1 2.5 5.8
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 6.6 4.4
11 Jalen Smith IND 11.0 6.1 1.1
12 Draymond Green GS 9.5 7.1 5.6
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 2.7 5.2
14 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 4.2 1.7
15 Dario Saric GS 8.5 3.5 3.6
16 Moses Moody GS 8.3 2.0 0.8
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.2 3.7 0.8
18 Lester Quinones GS 6.0 2.7 1.2
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.8 4.8 1.6
20 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.5 3.6 0.9
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.2 1.9 1.1
22 Gui Santos GS 3.7 2.4 0.7
23 Jerome Robinson GS 1.9 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.