NBA games

DET @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
133–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET31392736133
SAC36273621120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SAC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 38 37 6 7
Alec Burks 28 25 7 2
Jalen Duren S 37 20 15 6
Marcus Sasser 32 18 3 4
Ausar Thompson S 27 12 6 2
Mike Muscala S 25 9 3 0
Killian Hayes S 28 8 4 9
Joe Harris 12 2 0 0
Danilo Gallinari 11 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 41 30 12 7
Malik Monk 34 23 5 10
Trey Lyles 23 19 2 1
Kevin Huerter S 34 16 1 1
De'Aaron Fox S 35 12 3 7
Davion Mitchell 23 9 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 24 8 4 0
Sasha Vezenkov 6 3 1 0
Keegan Murray S 20 0 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Huerter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
12%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Killian Hayes DET
7%
10 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
39%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.9 4.1 4.5
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.1 4.5 8.9
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.1 13.7 10.0
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.6 4.8 4.8
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 20.5 3.3 3.0
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 16.9 3.5 1.9
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.4 4.0 3.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 14.3 11.1 2.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 14.3 4.7 2.1
10 Alec Burks DET 13.9 3.3 2.5
11 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 3.3 5.0
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.5 5.9 1.5
13 Marcus Sasser DET 8.5 1.5 3.6
14 Trey Lyles SAC 7.0 3.0 1.4
15 Danilo Gallinari DET 5.9 2.0 1.1
16 Killian Hayes DET 5.5 2.5 5.3
17 Davion Mitchell SAC 4.7 1.5 1.5
18 JaVale McGee SAC 4.4 3.1 0.6
19 James Wiseman DET 4.2 3.3 0.7
20 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.9 1.4 0.4
21 Mike Muscala DET 3.7 2.3 0.7
22 Keon Ellis SAC 3.3 1.5 0.8
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.8 1.5 0.8
25 Joe Harris DET 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.