NBA games

NO @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO36192438117
LAC19282237106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 25 7 4
Zion Williamson S 35 21 3 10
Brandon Ingram S 36 15 8 6
Herbert Jones S 30 13 7 2
Trey Murphy III 23 13 1 2
Dyson Daniels 22 10 4 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 11 8 2 1
Jose Alvarado 13 7 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 2 3 0 0
Larry Nance Jr. 27 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 38 19 8 5
Norman Powell 26 18 1 0
Kawhi Leonard S 33 15 6 4
Ivica Zubac S 21 12 8 1
Mason Plumlee 15 11 3 1
Amir Coffey 21 8 0 3
Paul George S 28 7 1 4
Terance Mann S 25 5 5 1
Russell Westbrook 18 4 3 4
Kobe Brown 3 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 12-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
10%
3 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Mason Plumlee LAC
9%
6 Paul George LAC
9%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 CJ McCollum NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
26%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.0 6.7 4.9
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.8 6.3 6.7
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.6 4.8 5.5
4 James Harden LAC 19.7 6.3 8.6
5 CJ McCollum NO 18.8 4.8 3.8
6 Paul George LAC 18.7 4.9 3.8
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 14.5 4.6 4.9
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.5 9.8 2.5
9 Norman Powell LAC 12.5 3.6 1.7
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.3 10.5 1.8
11 Herbert Jones NO 11.3 3.1 2.1
12 Trey Murphy III NO 10.9 3.9 1.3
13 Terance Mann LAC 10.0 2.9 1.9
14 Amir Coffey LAC 9.3 2.6 1.3
15 Mason Plumlee LAC 7.8 7.3 1.5
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.9 2.6 1.2
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.8 5.1 1.7
18 Daniel Theis LAC 6.7 4.5 1.5
19 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 1.7 1.7
20 Dyson Daniels NO 4.5 2.9 2.1
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.1 1.0
22 Brandon Boston LAC 3.3 1.0 0.4
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.9 1.9 0.3
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.7 2.2 0.8
25 Bones Hyland LAC 2.3 0.6 0.8
26 Kobe Brown LAC 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.