NBA games

SA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
104–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31202627104
MIA32212538116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 31 19 2 6
Devin Vassell S 32 19 3 3
Victor Wembanyama S 28 18 13 3
Cedi Osman 22 8 5 0
Zach Collins 17 8 4 3
Keldon Johnson 25 7 6 0
Julian Champagnie S 19 6 5 3
Jeremy Sochan S 29 6 5 3
Blake Wesley 16 5 1 6
Malaki Branham 8 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 29 24 6 7
Bam Adebayo S 29 20 5 2
Jimmy Butler III S 34 17 11 11
Terry Rozier S 28 13 2 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 10 3 0
Caleb Martin S 25 9 5 2
Josh Richardson 26 9 4 0
Duncan Robinson 19 6 2 2
Kevin Love 17 6 6 0
Orlando Robinson 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 6-foot two point shot (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Tre Jones SA
9%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
9 Caleb Martin MIA
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.9 10.6 4.3
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.9 5.9 5.0
3 Devin Vassell SA 22.7 4.5 5.3
4 Tyler Herro MIA 19.1 4.4 4.5
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.1 10.8 3.9
6 Terry Rozier MIA 14.8 4.9 5.9
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.2 8.3 3.4
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.2 5.7 1.7
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.0 4.3 2.8
10 Tre Jones SA 12.6 3.7 7.6
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.6 4.0 2.0
12 Josh Richardson MIA 10.2 3.3 1.8
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.5 2.2 1.8
14 Zach Collins SA 8.7 4.2 2.4
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.1 2.3 1.4
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.0 3.5 1.3
17 Kevin Love MIA 5.9 3.7 1.6
18 Blake Wesley SA 5.6 1.8 3.1
19 Malaki Branham SA 5.2 1.5 1.3
20 Doug McDermott SA 5.0 1.2 1.2
21 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.0 3.0 1.5
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.7 1.3 0.5
23 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.6 1.4 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.5 1.0 1.3
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.2 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.