NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL37302327117
BOS35362430125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 36 25 9 1
Trae Young S 38 20 2 10
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 19 10 3
Jalen Johnson S 36 19 15 4
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 35 12 6 3
De'Andre Hunter 23 10 1 1
Bruno Fernando 12 9 4 1
Garrison Mathews 14 3 0 0
Patty Mills 10 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 31 3 1
Derrick White S 35 21 6 7
Jayson Tatum S 36 20 9 7
Jaylen Brown S 34 15 6 6
Al Horford S 36 14 8 8
Sam Hauser 25 10 5 0
Payton Pritchard 16 8 2 2
Luke Kornet 21 4 6 0
Oshae Brissett 6 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 12-foot jump bank shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
8%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
8 Trae Young ATL
7%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
10 Garrison Mathews ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.9 3.1 11.5
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.0 8.2 5.3
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.9 5.8 6.6
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.8 6.6 5.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.2 7.0 3.3
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.4 7.9 3.9
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.6 3.4 3.5
8 Derrick White BOS 16.9 4.4 3.5
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.7 4.1 1.9
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.8 5.9 1.9
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.3 7.0 1.4
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 6.2 2.2
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.6 2.9 2.5
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 2.6 1.6
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 5.3 1.0
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 1.4 0.6
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.0 2.7 1.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 4.1 0.6
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.9 1.3 0.7
20 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.8 3.4 0.6
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.4 2.0 0.7
22 Patty Mills ATL 3.2 1.1 0.6
23 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 1.3 1.2
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 2.4 0.6
25 AJ Griffin ATL 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.