NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27302334114
WSH27302227106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 40 8 5
Evan Mobley S 25 22 8 1
Darius Garland S 28 13 0 4
Jarrett Allen S 37 12 9 2
Georges Niang 17 7 3 0
Dean Wade 12 6 2 0
Isaac Okoro 28 5 3 3
Caris LeVert 13 4 5 5
Sam Merrill 14 3 1 2
Max Strus S 28 2 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 32 28 4 2
Corey Kispert 33 23 7 2
Tyus Jones S 29 15 3 8
Daniel Gafford S 35 14 13 0
Deni Avdija S 20 9 8 3
Bilal Coulibaly 28 6 3 1
Delon Wright 13 5 1 0
Landry Shamet 12 3 3 3
Eugene Omoruyi 13 3 3 3
Jordan Poole S 25 0 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 20-foot two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
8%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.9 5.3 8.5
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 21.3 7.6 4.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.1 3.2 6.0
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.2 13.1 2.8
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.5 10.7 3.1
6 Deni Avdija WSH 15.8 6.3 3.3
7 Caris LeVert CLE 14.3 4.0 4.9
8 Jordan Poole WSH 13.6 2.7 3.3
9 Max Strus CLE 12.1 5.2 3.5
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.3 8.8 1.5
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 2.9 1.6
12 Tyus Jones WSH 11.0 3.8 8.2
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.7 2.8 1.7
14 Georges Niang CLE 9.9 3.7 1.9
15 Sam Merrill CLE 9.0 2.3 2.2
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.9 3.3 1.5
17 Landry Shamet WSH 6.9 1.4 1.1
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.8 1.1
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 2.2 1.8
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 1.8 0.8
21 Damian Jones CLE 3.8 2.5 0.7
22 Delon Wright WSH 3.6 1.6 1.3
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Jules Bernard WSH 2.2 0.9 0.6
25 Johnny Davis WSH 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.